Our public sector research team is based in Moscow providing us with the on-the-ground, local knowledge which we believe is key to making informed investment decisions in our geography. Our investment process focuses on developing a thorough understanding of the corporates in our investment universe. As well as the usual financial modelling, we spend a lot of time meeting with corporates to understand the aims and ambitions of company management and principals.
The research and investment team have been working in Russia since the mid-1990s and have known many of the company's since before they were first listed.
In addition to investment research, we produce a number of research products including quarterly updates and more thematic reports which we hope provide some insight into our thinking about Russia's financial markets.
Spring VCGF FUND ― 2Q20 Newsletter
Russia is getting past the peak of COVID epidemic, new OPEC+ deal brings support to the world oil market – this was enough for Russian equity market to show strong performance in the second quarter. In this note we look at recovery trends by industry and the adequacy and impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus provided. We also discuss the trends on the European natural gas market, which have significant implications for Gazprom, Russia’s largest publicly traded company.
Spring Q1 2020 report
The first quarter on 2020 was difficult for all countries due to coronavirus pandemic, but on top of that Russia was hit with a steep decline of oil prices as a result of OPEC+ break-up. We discuss how Russia is responding to both threats, and whether reserves accumulated in the last five years of fiscal and monetary conservatism will be enough to last through the crisis.
Russia - 4Q19 Review
This quarter we focus on implications of the recent political developments, including Vladimir Putin’s proposed constitutional changes and his chances to remain in power after his presidential term ends in 2024. We also look in detail at the appointment of a new Prime Minister and how the policies of a new Cabinet will be different from the previous one. We also discuss the major developments over the last quarter, including a compromise solution of Yandex conflict, and how lower gas prices in Europe affect Gazprom.
Falling Bond Yields, Rising Dividends – The Curious Case of The Domestic Investor
In this note we look back 30 years at the emergence of Russian domestic investors and analyze how macroeconomic developments over the years led to dramatic changes in his preference for different asset classes.
We also analyze currently diverging trends in bond yields and dividend yields, and look at how Russian retail investors respond to declining bond yields and deposit rates, and what it means for the equity market.
The report discusses main economic and political events of the quarter: the CBR rate cut, an upcoming stimulus from the National Welfare Fund Spending and the start of Russia-Ukraine negotiation process. We also look at the most important events on the equity market during the quarter, analyzing outperformance of Norilsk Nickel and an enigmatic jump of Surgutneftegaz.
Russian Equity Market: a longer-term perspective
In this research piece we put Russian market’s performance year-to-date into a longer-term context. We looked at Russian equities since the very creation of the modern market in 1995, how it performed vs other emerging markets, and tried to attribute performance to various factors: domestic economy, oil prices, political turmoil, and inherent market volatility.
VCGF 2Q19 newsletter
This report discusses in detail the main developments of the second quarter of 2019. We identify the reasons behind continuing ruble appreciation, discuss implications of the regime change in Kiev for Russia/Ukraine bilateral relationship, and discuss the main reasons for market performance this quarter. We look deeper into Gazprom story, discuss the causes of its dramatic performance and, putting it in into the longer-term context, single out things to watch that will shape the future performance of the company.
Russia under sanctions
This research looks in depth into the effects foreign sanctions had on Russia’s economic outlook, retaliatory measures of the Russian government, and the adapting qualities of the Russian private and public sectors. We discuss impact of existing sanctions on individual sectors and financial market as a whole and analyse the potential effect of future sanctions currently being proposed.
VCGF 1Q19 newsletter
This report covers main themes of the first quarter of 2019: most recent developments in the Calvey case, progress in Russia/Ukraine relations, strong performance of the ruble and the stock market’s rally. We focus on the reasons behind the outperformance of the top three contributors to the index: Lukoil, Sberbank and Yandex each had its own story behind the rally this quarter.
This report discusses the stance of the Russian equity market at the beginning of 2019 and contrast geopolitical risks with attractive fundamentals of publicly traded companies. We also track efficiency gains of underlying corporates and changing attitude towards rewarding shareholders through higher dividend payments. The research also discusses macro dynamics following the introduction of higher VAT tax, effective on January 2019, inflation expectations and potential response by the Central Bank of Russia.